Business is getting harder.
You’ve probably felt it.
It’s not your imagination.
I’ve been sitting on this newsletter for a week. I had the feeling, but I wanted the numbers to back it up.
My wife’s on a girls’ weekend, which left me and Blue, our slightly hyper GSP, holding down the fort.
He chased squirrels. I chased data.
Late into the night…
And the numbers prove it out.
In fact, they show something almost no one has noticed...
B2B deal win rates are down 18% year over year.
Sales cycles longer by 38% since 2021.
40-60% of deals now die with no-decision made.
And if you just look at those numbers you might think things are getting pretty bad.
But the averages are hiding a boogyman.
Here’s how my partner Bill Baren put it to me today...
“If you are there in the middle, in the middle of pricing, in the middle of some crowded marketplace, the odds of success are pretty low... I’ve been thinking about this for years... And they’re getting lower.”
And Bill’s not the only one feeling it.
More and more this year, I’m hearing from business owners who are doing “ok” but confess that everything’s getting harder.
We’re not in a recession; last quarter we grew at 1.5%.
Not lighting the world on fire, but still growing.
It’s a lumpy, friction-filled, slow expansion.
And all those averages I mentioned don’t reveal the real news:
The top 17% of salespeople produce 81% of revenue.
(Ok, you’re thinking that’s simple 80/20 at work.)
But the gap between the top performers and the average ones used to be 6x. (Meaning the top salespeople did 6-times better than average.)
That gap has grown to 8.9x, then to 11x in just three years.
The trend is that those who have get more. And they’re getting more, faster than ever.
But it’s not just at the macro level of business.
In professional services...
Top firms now grow 4x faster than average.
And, they’re 30% more profitable.
Visible experts (authors, speakers, recognized industry leaders) are capturing 13x the fees of equally skilled, less visible professionals.
These gaps have always existed. That’s not the news.
The news is that they are growing and accelerating.
It’s never been more dangerous to be “in the middle”.
And it’s fractal (like those stacking Russian dolls)...
The same pattern is playing out at all levels of the economy.
Broad: The middle class in the US has gone from 61% to 51% of the population, and their share of income has gone from 62% to 43% (the acceleration).
Market-level: Over the last 5 years, mid-tier retail is up 2%. Premium retail is up 81%.
Micro-level: For the first time in history Delta’s premium cabin revenue exceeds its coach-class revenue.
And it’s not just in dollars...
The top position on Google gets about 10x the clicks of position 10.
At every level, the economy is going through labor pains associated with the final stages of birthing the micro-chip revolution that started in the 70s...
AI is the accelerant.
And it’s pushing everything to the ends.
The top is going exponential.
Everything else is settling to the bottom.
The reorganization is happening at every scale in the economy... all the way down to your market, your business.
There is no more “comfortable middle.”
It has never been harder to be ordinary...
And it’s never been better to be the only one.
Now, do I think you’re going out of business if you’re stuck in the middle?
The data doesn’t support that.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that business survival rates have been flat for 30 years.
So, I’m not here to give you the “you’re going to die tomorrow” fear nonsense that so many are spreading...
But, that doesn’t mean there’s not a BIG problem.
You probably won’t go out of business, but if you don’t get out of the middle of your market and get to the top, business is going to be hard...and increasingly harder.
Get Out of the Pile
Years ago I read Jack Welch’s book “Straight from the Gut.” One line in the book stuck with me.
Welch was describing his early days at GE when he realized that the most important thing he had to do was “get out of the pile.”
That needs to become your prime directive...
Get Out Of The Pile...
Easy for me to say... hard for you to do.
I know.
(I have some ideas for you, that I’m sharing Thursday)
It doesn’t help that so much of the advice that is out there on how to grow is focused on the wrong thing.
I call it The Motion Trap.
It’s the hustle culture of just “do more.”
Post more.
Pitch more.
More marketing... more, more, more.
More of average is still average.
It’s a faster ride to the bottom.
More isn’t the right strategy, now.
“The ONLY”
Is your only way out (pun intended).
You’ve got to reposition your business from “one in the crowd”...
To “The Only Name”
As in... “the only name you need”.
That’s what you want your prospects saying to each other.
That’s “out of the pile”.
We’ll cover all of the trends we’ve uncovered and what we think the action plan should be for you in a first-time-ever “State of the Industry” Town Hall.
Thursday, Sep 3rd at 3pm ET
Register: https://milliondollarauthor.io/ageofproof
I’ve been doing research for months now.
As you’ve seen from what I’ve shared the last two weeks there are real, foundational shifts happening in the “expertise” and advice-selling industries.
AI is accelerating the changes, so time is short.
On Thursday, we’ll do a deep dive into the trends, what we believe they mean, and what you can do about it, in your business right away.
See you there...
Steve “out of the pile” Gordon
P.S. One question before Thursday: in the market you serve, who’s the #1 name? If you hesitated, that seat is still open on Thursday…